The Asia Cup 2025 Super Four event is a tussle, but Pakistan is on its way to the final with a lot of turns and swings, as net run rate (NRR) is threatening to make or break.
Having lost six wickets to India in Dubai, Pakistan is now obliged to focus on winning its remaining games and improving its NRR to remain relevant in the final, which will take place in September.
The easiest scenario for Pakistan is to win both the remaining matches, against Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, and hope that India wins both matches. Such an outcome would have India leading the group with three wins and Pakistan coming second with two wins.
Nevertheless, more complex routes can also be taken. If India mop up their matches and Pakistan divide the matches by winning over Bangladesh and losing over Sri Lanka, three teams would be tied in terms of wins, so NRR would be used to decide the second finalist.
The other nail-biting situation is that both Pakistan and India won the game, and Bangladesh was the one to shock India. Thus, the three teams will remain tied at two wins, and the NRR will be used as the tiebreaker.
The defeat to India made the calculations of Pakistan complex, with Abhishek Sharma (74 off 39) and Shubman Gill (47 off 28) leading the successful chase during 18.5 overs to reach 171, giving a big NRR advantage to the Indians.
To make the situation more dramatic, Bangladesh’s four-wicket win over Sri Lanka pushed them to the brink of the tournament, with half-centuries by Saif Hassan and Towhid Hridoy. To Pakistan, every single run and over will now have an added significance in this high-stakes race to the final.
